Saturday, February 11, 2006

7 Trillion $

What will the increase in American public debt from 1-2 trillion $ to 10 trillion $ over the last 6 years do? The current administration has spent a great deal of money and doesn't look like it will be stopping any time soon.

This brings up the question: where is the money going?
Its being injected into the world economy. This will have a few effects.
1) The further devaluation of the dollar.
2) ?
3) While spending as a % of GDP isn't horrendous and growth of GDP still outpaces inflation, things are fine. The growth of the world's GDP will also increase as more and more people move from the poverty class and into the consumer class.

I anticipate another strong 30 years for the world economy, with the USA playing a lesser role as consumer culture spreads to the rest of the world.

However, fiscal responsibility requires a surplus. There are many countries that are not in debt. Norway is the country that impresses me most, though all of Europe is now recovered from WW2. Norway has systems to generate wealth for itself. Once a surplus is achieved, you can then lower taxes or increase services...depending on the need and political climate.

A second question: where will it end up? is also relevant.
All money is just a symbol of debt transferred throughout the world in different formats. When you create a large amount of debt and distribute it, it will end up in the pockets of those companies that produce things throughout the world. These companies are either publicly owned or privately owned. The privately owned businesses will profit better than those traded on the open market, but in any cyclical spending and taxation economic model, the money will eventually filter out to companies or individuals who own stocks. So, in short 7 trillion$ dollars is going to end up in publicly held companies which will pay portions of it out to their stockholders. This is a good thing and a risky investor can position themselves to benefit from this influx of cash into the market.

No comments: